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Edhec prescribes risk control using dynamic core-satellite approach Drucken E-Mail
5.03.2010

A new study by Edhec shows that dynamic core-satellite strategies offer attractive risk/return tradeoffs with a focus on controlling risk. The analysis describes a dynamic risk management technique that makes it possible to provide relatively smooth returns with limited risk. Before assessing the performance and constraints of such an approach it may be useful to revisit the constituent parts of a core-satellite portfolio. The core component aims to fully replicate the investor’s designated benchmark which in the broadest sense represents the market. It is made up of one or more satellites which are allowed a higher tracking error and a goal of outperforming the portfolio benchmark. Although the weights allocated to the core and satellite can be static, the proportion invested in the performance-seeking portfolio, the satellite, can also fluctuate, making the approach dynamic.

The dynamic version of the core-satellite approach is supposed to allow investors to adjust their allocation weights in both the core and satellite by rebalancing the portfolio on a monthly basis. If the manager believes the core will outperform the satellite in the following month he will allocate 100% of the portfolio to the core. If the manager expects the satellite to outperform the core in the following month he will allocate 50% of his portfolio to the satellite with the balance in the core. “We assume that the manager has positive forecasting skill, that is, he correctly forecasts satellite out-performance over a month at least seven times a year. “In other words, we assume a hit ratio of at least 7 times out of 12. We look at hit ratios ranging from 7/12 to 11/12,” notes the study.


 

Edhec Figures Show Dynamic Core-Satellite Offers Higher Returns and Lower Risk

December 1998 to Dec 2008

Return*

Max Drawdown**

Volatility

Sharpe Ratio

Core

 

 

4.44%

-3.08%

2.61%

0.94

Satellite

 

 

-0.99%

-59.90%

19.46%

-0.15

Static Core-Satellite

 

2.26%

-27/92%

9.22%

0.03

Dynamic Core-Satellite

 

6.41%

-3.11%

3.83%

1.15

*average  **average

 

 

 

 



To assess the performance of this approach, Edhec simulated 1000 scenarios covering January 1999 to December 2008. A defensive European government bond portfolio was used in the core and large-cap equity in the satellite. The starting period for the analysis marks the first instance that government bonds were denominated in euros. The 1000 scenarios are supposed to reflect the performance by 1000 hypothetical active managers who have a given hit ratio or the instances in which the satellite outperforms the core over a twelve month period.

 

Edhec Results are Based on Different Forecasts of Satellite Outperformance During the Year* 

Hit Ratio

 7 out of 12

8 out of 12

9 out of 12

10 out of 12

11 out of 12

Expected Return**

5.68%

8.01%

10.48%

12.91%

15.49%

Maximum Drawdown**

-13.24%

-10.57%

-8.49%

-6.66%

-4.52%

Worst Max Drawdown

-28.09%

-25.21%

-22.92%

-19.03%

-16.17%

Worst Performance

-22.91%

-22.07%

-18.38%

-15.76%

-12.55%

*based on a simulation of 1000 scenarios**average expected return and average max drawdown

 

 
The higher returns in the table above result from a dynamic asset allocation policy that shifts more money into the satellite portfolio when it outperforms the benchmark. This is because the out-performance results in a higher cushion and allows for a more aggressive investment strategy. If the satellite underperforms the benchmark, the strategy shifts more money into the core portfolio, leading to a smaller tracking error.

As a new risk budgeting technique, however, core-satellite poses a number of challenges. The decision to reallocate funds between core and satellite depends on a number of factors, either difficult to control or forecast. The most obvious challenge is liquidity. Any re-allocation among passive and active managers presumes the ability to transfer funds in and out. This is less of an issue with long-only large-cap equity funds; however, small caps and emerging market equity can prove to be less liquid. In addition, private investments and many hedge funds are typically structured with liquidity clauses, making the dynamic re-allocation among managers difficult and shrinking the available universe of investments for the satellite segment of the portfolio. Implementing a dynamic core-satellite approach can be more difficult during times of crisis when even traditional asset classes prove to be less liquid. Even the use of ETFs for alternative asset classes can present challenges: how does an ETF offer intra-day liquidity on products that are computed only quarterly in the case of real estate, and monthly in the case of hedge fund indices?

Assigning weights to the core and satellite based on historic performance presents another challenge. Edhec suggests re-balancing the portfolio on a monthly basis based on historic data. While this has proven to limit risk in the sample period, it also raises the question whether investors should not maintain a longer than one-month horizon in relation to the performance of one of their active satellite managers. Some may argue that Edhec’s monthly rebalancing leaves little room for longer-term strategic investing.

 

 

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